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Well, that is what you call a
cliffhanger. Four nights, one terrifying

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war and a cabinet pushed to breaking
point.

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Tonight, they're back together for the
first time to answer the big questions

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our series has left you with. Could this
actually happen? And if it did, is

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Britain ready?

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This is the War Game Aftermath.

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Hello and welcome to the War Game
Aftermath. And good evening, Prime

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Minister. Good evening.

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Well, what a week it has been. I'm Cathy
Newman and we're live on Sky One. For

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four nights, this lot have kept us on
the edge of our seats.

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So let's welcome our War Game Cabinet.

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They are Michael Gove, Nicola
Sturgeon... Penny Morden, Saeed Avasi,

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Harriet Harman, Gin Murphy, Richard
Barron, Kim Darroch, Ayesha Hazarika and

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Christopher Steele.

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Coming up tonight, we're asking all the
big questions, including just how close

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are we to this happening for real?

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Plus... I'm going to keep this really
simple.

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On current projections, in a war with
Russia, we've got about two weeks'

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fight.

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It was the moment that silenced the
room. If we faced an attack tomorrow,

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could we actually defend ourselves?

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In an exclusive interview, the real
Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting, gives

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us his response.

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And remember that hot mic moment?

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We're only in this fucking mess because
that big fucking baby's taking orders

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from Russia.

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From deepfakes to disinformation, we
reveal the secret attacks taking place

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right here.

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on British soil.

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And finally, after tonight's dramatic
ending, we reopen Britain's nuclear

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debate. We've got it all going on. This
is the War Game Aftermath.

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But first, our Cabinet were locked
inside Cobra, facing the kind of

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decisions no politician ever wants to
make. And it just kept getting worse.

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It's no wonder the War Game got people
talking.

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Our cabinet has caused quite the
reaction and prompted some searching

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questions. Let's take a look at this.

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It's the show that's grabbed headlines
up and down the country and got

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everybody talking.

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New reality series The War Game on Sky.

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Where else would you go for the level of
insight?

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I knew it was an exercise, but watching
Sky's The War Game still scared me.

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Experts say that the show does serve as
a warning.

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Scariest show on TV right now. Are we
ready for a national emergency?

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There's Michael Gove, there's Nicola
Sturgeon. Yeah, Nicola Sturgeon.

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Great, yeah. From capability to
vulnerability, it's prompted some big

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questions. It is a serious programme
about what might happen if we face...

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an even more serious threat. Questions
and conversations that have been echoed

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in the real world. It taps into the
vulnerabilities with cyber security,

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which is a big talking point in the
news.

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What could happen when Britain faces the
ultimate threat?

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You're talking about using weapons of
mass destruction. I thought it was

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ludicrous. We've had this going on for
years. It's no worse now than it was.

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10 years ago. I don't believe that.
Tonight, in an exclusive reunion, we

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step inside the briefing room one more
time.

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Well, that wasn't a relaxing couple of
hours in front of the telly.

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Well, it's great to have you all
reunited. What a line-up. And all of you

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experts in your particular fields, of
course. And for transparency, some of

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you do have commercial interests in the
defence industry. That is a matter of

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public record.

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And quite a few of you have experience
in real life in Cobra.

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So that is also worth mentioning.

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Ayesha, we've had such an amazing
reaction to this series.

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A lot of people saying to me, was it all
scripted? Tell us the reality.

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Yeah, I mean, I've had that from a lot
of people saying...

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it must be scripted because all the
politicians were really fluent and they

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were very succinct.

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That never happened.

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And then a lot of people have been like,
well, hang on, politicians are really

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good actors, so surely this is all
scripted. Honestly, it was not scripted.

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When we came into it, all we were told
is that there is a scenario where the

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country would face some kind of attack.
So we had that as the basic premise.

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And then when the whole thing started...

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All these events unfolded and we had to
respond in real time. And I think

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because each one of us in the room had
inhabited those roles before, that's why

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it felt so authentic, because we...

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could imagine ourselves being there
because we sort of had been before.

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Well, and Nicola, you all got completely
immersed in it, didn't you? Totally. It

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was so immersive.

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We were on mic and on camera from the
moment we arrived in the morning to well

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into the evening and, you know, when we
were having breaks, having lunch. So we

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never, ever stepped away from the
scenario. It was much more realistic and

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felt more real than I thought it would.
And I think that was really important

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because I think that was necessary to
give it the... authenticity that I hope

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it's had on television and the tension
but I mean it pursued you in your dreams

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I went home one night and had a dream
about being chased by Russians but we it

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was completely unscripted none of us
knew what was about to happen but I

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think we were all trying to predict it
so I got it into my head I think on day

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two that one of us was going to be
assassinated and started to worry about

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how my mum was going to feel if it was
me so we got absolutely into it and I

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think all of us felt it was very, very
real, scarily real at moments.

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Michael, Prime Minister, you were really
into it too, weren't you? Yes, so much

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so that on one of the days of filming, I
was so preoccupied with thinking

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about... the scenario that we faced and
what the options were that I nearly got

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run over by a manic cyclist as I was on
my way back from Pret with a necessary

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additional injection of caffeine.

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And I think... They didn't give you
caffeine?

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Not enough. I think that part of that
was because so much thought had gone

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into the scenario from Deborah Haynes,
Sky's defence and security editor. And

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also, you know, we have in people like
Richard Barron, Zan Kim Darroch and

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Christopher Steele...

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people who've had to think hard about
these issues and questions. So they

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weren't going to take part in something
that was a circus, and that meant that

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there was a responsibility on those of
us who were politicians to live up to

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the faith that those people had put into
the project.

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And, Saeeda, it's really interesting,
because I've interviewed, I think, every

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single one of you on my show numerous
times, and what really struck me was

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just how well you seemed to be getting
on across the political divide. I mean,

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there was camaraderie, wasn't there?
Well, now that you ask, Cathy.

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But, actually, we genuinely got on as a
team, and I think the sense in the room

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was that the circumstances that we
faced, the decisions that we were having

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to make, were so important and so
serious that our political divides, our

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ideologies, our history, none of that
mattered.

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And I think certainly for Michael and I,
we've had an experience of working in a

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coalition cabinet where we had people
from very different political

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backgrounds around the table. And what
was interesting was even around the

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table, we didn't divide in what would be
considered to be traditional party

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political lines.

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There was definitely one divide.

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I think there was definitely a kind of a
sisterhood going on. Yeah, I noticed

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that little huddle of women, wasn't
there? And certainly when we came off

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set, you know, that huddle would get
very interesting.

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So, there needs to be a whole programme
of outtakes, I think, somewhere.

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Very good.

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Jim Murphy and I were in Testosterone
Corner.

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Clearly, yeah, we saw that.

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With me.

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Yeah, Penny was in as well. Yeah, that's
good.

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Oh, Jim, I mean, you might have been in
Testosterone Corner, but you looked a

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bit pasty some of the time. Was that the
tension or what?

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Well... The threat of nuclear war does
that to you, Cathy.

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But look, by day three, I had developed
a violent vomiting bug, which years ago

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I would happily have shared with some of
the people here.

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But we all wanted to get on, and I think
Chris Steele, who had thought that...

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It was the early stages of an
assassination attempt.

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Sort of Russian poisoning.

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So I can't take credit for my
performance in the last two days because

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I think I was hallucinating through some
of it.

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Let me bring in Debs here, who's in the
audience, who was very much behind this

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whole project. It's based on your idea,
Sky's security and defence editor. There

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has been some criticism too, hasn't
there? Let's be honest about that. Some

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suggestions, are we sort of giving
Russia our playbook? Just respond to

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that. Yeah, I mean, the fundamental
principle behind this TV series and the

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podcast before it was that Russia knows
our secrets, but do you?

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And it's about raising awareness in the
public.

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So Russia is fully aware that the UK,
since the end of the Cold War, has

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hollowed out its armed forces, has lost
familiarity with the idea of national

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resilience. And so by bringing it to
life with this extraordinary...

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cast of experts.

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We are showing the British public the
risk that we as a country are holding,

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the threat that we're under, and then
it's a choice.

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It's about choice, and it's better to
have an informed choice. So that's the

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purpose of this whole project.

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Penny, the suggestion that we were
participating in some kind of

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warmongering exercise, what would be
your response to that?

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Well, I agree with Deborah.

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You know, our enemies know our
weaknesses.

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And I think for a lot of us, the
motivation for taking part in this is to

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try and educate people. And actually,
the public are way ahead of politicians

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in this. They really sense that we do
need to take this more seriously.

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But we've got people in the House of
Commons at the moment who could really

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make a difference to... It's not about
being able to fight a war in the future.

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I don't want a war.

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It's about deterring a conflict in the
future. If you've got strong-arm forces,

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you deter hostile aggression towards
you. And we'll come back to that concept

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of deterrence later on.

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Michael, you finally achieved your
ambition to be Prime Minister. It's been

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a long time coming. I want to play you
some unseen footage of how the Cabinet

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reacted to that. Let's have a look.

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Hello. Hello. Hello. How are you, Prime
Minister?

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I never thought I'd see the day when I'd
call you Prime Minister.

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What did you say?

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I never thought I'd actually see the day
when I'd call him Prime Minister.

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Hi, Saida.

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Do I have to call you Prime Minister?

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No, no, no, you can say Michael.

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Well, Michael, how was it being Prime
Minister for all of four days?

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Disconcerting.

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The first thing is that the Cabinet were
far better behaved than any Cabinet of

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which I've been part.

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So if you want to model collective and
consensual behaviour in a

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crisis, then I have to say that my
colleagues...

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exhibited all of those virtues.

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Well, you were accused of losing your
mind at one point. That's true, but

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Saeeda has said far worse things about
me in the past.

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Mild and moderate in terms of justified
criticism.

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More broadly, though, one of the things
that it does bring through is that

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whoever happens to be Prime Minister,
the buck stops with them. So, as Prime

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Minister, you try to ensure that all of
your colleagues have an opportunity to

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share their viewpoint.

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But everyone does so in the knowledge
that there are some ultimate decisions

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which are inescapably the Prime
Minister's. And so the burden that he or

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00:11:51,740 --> 00:11:55,420
she bears is greater than any other
person around the Cabinet table.

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Right, well, that's just the
amuse-bouche. There's much more to come.

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The last few nights have made for some
pretty gripping and dramatic TV, but

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here is the key question.

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Could the events of the war game
actually happen?

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We'll be discussing that right after
this break.

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Welcome back to the War Game Aftermath,
live on Sky One. We've reunited our

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Cabinet to relive some of the
extraordinary moments from the series.

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And that brings us to the big question.

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How close are we to this happening for
real?

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Because before the missiles were
launched and the nuclear button even

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contemplated, our Cabinet's escalating
scenario started with a series of

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sinister grey zone attacks.

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Last night, two RAF pilots were shot
dead.

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Police have arrested a suspect with
links to Russia. There has been a cyber

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attack. Ambulance response times have
been severely hit.

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And there's a Russian vessel in our
territorial waters.

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There's no excuse for them being that
close to our cables.

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There just isn't.

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The Russians will exploit this. They are
playing the victims in this. This was a

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deliberate act.

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There is a lot of Russian disinformation
swirling about.

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This is a classic combination of hybrid
or grey space activity.

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If this is Russia, it will escalate.

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Oh, my God. We are under attack within
our own country.

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They will just keep pushing and keep
testing us.

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Russia has organised and paid for an
alternative government.

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Why have we missed this?

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Where have we been?

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So we're going to be discussing the grey
zone. Chris, Ayesha and Jim are here on

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the sofa, but also Keir Giles, who spent
decades studying Russia and decoding the

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Kremlin and was our lead Russia expert
on the war game. Thank you very much to

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you. I'll come to you in just a minute,
Keir. But, Chris, first, what we've just

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seen, cyber attacks, cable sabotage,
it's not all-out war, it's covert, it's

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deniable, but it is nevertheless
designed to harm an adversary, isn't it?

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So it's grey zone hybrid warfare.

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In the real world, are we already in the
grey zone?

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Yes, well, this all stems from something
called the Gerasimov Doctrine, which is

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developed by the chief of the general
staff in Russia.

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And it's the idea that you can harm and
divide your adversary.

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by fighting them effectively in this
grey zone. And I would define the grey

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zone as what exists between where Russia
considers that they're at war and we

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consider we're at war. There's a gap
between them, and it's in this gap,

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using unconventional means, sabotage,
assassination,

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arson, anything like that... social
media manipulation, disinformation, that

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you can have an advantage, and that's
how the Russians view it. And that

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leaves plenty of room for doubt, but
it's also something that we're sort of

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getting accustomed to.

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Yes, I think we're almost in a boiling
the frog moment, actually, in that this

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has been jacked up, I think, since 2022.

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and partly because Britain is such a
strong supporter of Ukraine.

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And we are, at the moment, in my view,
failing to deter the Russians from

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conducting ever more aggressive
operations in this space.

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Because, obviously, if you look back
many years, you have the Litvinenko

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poisoning, you have the Novichok
poisonings in Salisbury.

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You know, more recently, though, in the
last few months, there have been very

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plausible... Russia denies them, of
course, but these kind of attacks. Just

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give us some examples.

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Well, one example was the arson
attacks...

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that were carried out against the former
Prime Minister, Keir Starmer's house and

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former car and his relatives, which was
obviously carried out by a criminal who

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was convicted for them. It seems to have
been directed from Russia.

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And there was surprisingly little
reaction, I think, to that.

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An example, as I say, of where the
threshold is rising and where we are...

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in a way, not deterring, not acting
sufficiently decisively to deter this

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sort of activity.

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Jim, you got quite angry in the series,
saying at one point, how did we miss

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this? Do you worry about that boiling
the frog scenario that Chris set out

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just there?

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I absolutely do. I share the view that
we are not currently at war with Russia,

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but nor are we currently at peace with
Russia.

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And every hour of every day, Russia,
along with probably China and Iran...

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are testing our capabilities to protect
our way of life.

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And what I mean by that is if you run a
business, you're under attack.

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If you run the National Health Service,
you're under attack.

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If you run any part of our critical
infrastructure, you're under attack.

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And I've always had the view, I mean,
Chris and I have known one another for a

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quarter of a century. When I was a
minister at the Foreign Office

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responsible for Russia, I don't know if
I'm allowed to say this, you used to

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come and brief me on an insight on what
was happening in Russia based upon...

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You always followed my advice, as I
recall.

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Except on this TV show.

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But there's a risk, isn't there, Chris,
of miscalculation as well, isn't there?

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There's a massive risk of it, and
Russia, by mistake, could push us over

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the threshold into a sort of full-on
warlike situation.

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For example, there have been a couple of
attempts to jam the radar on ministers'

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aircraft visiting the Baltic states.

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There have been missiles fired, actually
live missiles, at British planes

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operating in the Black Sea in neutral
airspace, in international airspace.

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So it's quite possible that one of these
things could spill over into a full-on

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confrontation. I think that's the
problem with all of this, that

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miscalculation. Yeah. Putin invades
Ukraine because he miscalculates.

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And I think that's one of the messages
of the programme.

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Counterintuitively, the way to prevent
conflict is to prepare for it.

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So that Putin's in no doubt of the
consequences.

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And as I say, you know, Russia, the
Kremlin denies all this, and it is all

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eminently deniable. That's one of the
points of it. But here, let me bring in

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you here, because what's Vladimir
Putin's game plan here? What is Russia

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trying to achieve? What's the end game?

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Well, NATO is Russia's problem, because
NATO exists to prevent Russia from

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achieving some of the things that
Vladimir Putin has said very clearly he

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wants to do.

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Every time one of these attacks is
carried out, Russia learns about NATO,

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not just the vulnerabilities, but also
how far they can push before there's a

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response. And because of this lack of
deterrence that everybody's been talking

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about, they find they can push further
and further. That's why the situation

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feels so dangerous at the moment,
because nobody's put a stop sign,

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nobody's responded to it. If anybody's
watching the news this morning...

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They will have seen now the reporting on
plans for Russia to launch attack

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munitions from the Mediterranean Sea,
from their shadow fleet tankers, against

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France, Spain and Italy, where some
people previously cozily thought that

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they were out of range.

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Russia wouldn't be considering doing
that.

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unless they'd already established for
themselves that deterrence is failing at

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the moment to prevent them. Yeah.

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And, you know, part of the grey zone is
obviously disinformation. In our series,

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we saw Nicola Sturgeon's hot mic moment.
Are you still smarting from that,

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Nicola? I was taken by surprise. My
first thought, I have to say, was...

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Did I say that?

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My second thought was, everybody who
knows me will think I said that. In

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fact, I got a text when the episode went
out this week from a very senior

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Scottish government minister who shall
remain nameless, saying, are you sure

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that wasn't you? But there is a really
serious point, because misinformation,

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disinformation, it is now part of the
playbook of war, and we have to be

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prepared for that, just as we have to be
prepared for a military attack.

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Well, Ayesha, are we prepared? You know,
are we ready for this information war?

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Well, I think we're already in it and I
think social media is now so important

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in terms of driving information.

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And we talk about this theatre of war
and we think about sort of bombs and

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bullets and aircraft fighters, but
actually your phone is part of this kind

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of theatre of war now because there's so
much misinformation, so much

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disinformation. There are foreign
opponents of ours.

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deliberately in terms of bot farms and
sometimes the anonymous sock puppet

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you're fighting with on twitter it's not
just a benign thing it's actually

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foreign actors trying to sow division
trying to create polarization and

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division trying to turn citizens against
the state and i think in a crisis one of

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the big takeaways from for me of all of
this is you've got a terrible situation

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happening and you also have who does the
citizens trust there's a lot lack of

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trust in politics and there's a lack of
trust in mainstream media as well so

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very briefly how do we tackle that i
mean other countries have tried haven't

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they well it's interesting that the
prime minister has just actually

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announced a unit in in the last week or
so looking to try and counter

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misinformation as part of a sort of
military infrastructure program. But I

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think it's something that we all as
citizens have a responsibility to

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ourselves, our kids, our grandkids.

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Learn to think critically about
information you're consuming.

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Is it a verified source?

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Check before you start retweeting things
or passing things on to other people. I

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think our algorithms are guided by
somebody who often has an intent.

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And also governments and we in the media
have to get better as well about

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signposts, you know, creating more trust
in how we communicate.

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but also making sure that our
information is truthful and accurate.

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Great. Well, thank you all very much for
that top-level briefing.

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After the break, it was the revelation
that stopped the Cabinet in their

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tracks. I'm going to keep this really
simple.

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On current projections, in a war with
Russia, we've got about two weeks'

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fight.

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Our Cabinet had to fight a war with one
hand behind their backs. But would that

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be the case for our actual government?

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We'll be putting that question to the
real defense secretary, Wes Streeting,

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00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:05,760
right after this.

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Welcome back. This is the War Game
Aftermath live on Sky One.

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For the past four days, we've watched
our Cabinet respond to a chilling

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00:22:29,150 --> 00:22:31,830
escalation of Russian attacks on this
country.

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But it's left one pretty unsettling
question hanging over all of us. If this

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happened for real, would Britain
actually be ready for war?

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In just a moment, we'll be putting that
question to the real Defence Secretary,

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Wes Streeting. But first, let's take a
look at when our Cabinet learned about

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the gaps in our defence.

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Radar alert.

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Projectiles.

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Impact. Impact on food.

364
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This is unequivocally an act of war.

365
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:03,500
We must retaliate. I want the military
options available to us.

366
00:23:03,820 --> 00:23:05,720
Yeah, we've got a huge availability
problem.

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We're very thin here.

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Do you have the resources you need to
defend this country?

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I have the resources I have right now.

370
00:23:12,120 --> 00:23:13,200
We've got bugger all.

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You guys can't be calling Washington
every time there's a problem in Europe.

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Without the Americans, we're in a hole
that we have never planned for.

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We need to consider where we put the few
assets we have.

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We currently have one destroyer capable
of shooting down long-range ballistic

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missiles. Just one vessel.

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Jesus. The UK alone cannot win this war
by military means.

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Cruise missile picked up, and another,
and another.

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Impacts, impacts, impacts.

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People in this country, they've never
seen anything like this.

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On current projections...

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00:23:51,130 --> 00:23:52,310
We've got about two weeks' fight.

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00:23:55,970 --> 00:23:59,770
Well, those assessments really were
pretty sobering, and it does leave you

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00:23:59,770 --> 00:24:02,030
questioning whether Britain could defend
itself.

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With new warnings in the last few days
alone that Russia may be preparing a

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00:24:05,910 --> 00:24:10,790
fresh military escalation to test NATO's
resolve, there is really only one man

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00:24:10,790 --> 00:24:14,890
with the answers. So I sat down with the
real Defence Secretary, Wes Streeting,

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to discuss the war game.

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The key thing that stunned our war game
cabinet was the CDS Richard Barron's

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00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:26,520
assessment that the UK had just two
weeks fight against Russia.

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00:24:27,060 --> 00:24:31,340
So there was a moment where he stood up
in front of the press conference and he

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00:24:31,340 --> 00:24:33,980
was asked, do you have what you need to
defend this country?

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And his answer was, I have what I have.

393
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:40,820
Now, I don't think if we were in that
situation today, that would be our

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answer. I think we'd have a more
reassuring answer.

395
00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:47,200
Really? I mean, how much more reassuring
can you be on that?

396
00:24:47,420 --> 00:24:51,340
So one of the things that I found as the
defence secretary watching the programme

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00:24:51,340 --> 00:24:57,420
is there were options that I know are
available to me were something like this

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to happen that were not put to that
cabinet around the table. And I took

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00:25:01,260 --> 00:25:04,800
some reassurance from that in terms of
defensive capability, which for good

400
00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:08,980
reason we don't broadcast and we don't
talk about. America and Europe would be

401
00:25:08,980 --> 00:25:11,140
with us from day one if we came under
attack from Russia.

402
00:25:11,500 --> 00:25:16,240
Why will Russia think twice about waging
war on the UK or any other NATO member?

403
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:18,360
It's because they know we would all
respond.

404
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:23,020
And why would they be worried about
that? Because we have the capability to

405
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inflict real damage to defeat Russia.

406
00:25:26,220 --> 00:25:30,400
We saw in the series Michael Gove, well,
highlighting the fact that we don't have

407
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,020
like an Iron Dome style defence.

408
00:25:32,340 --> 00:25:35,780
Could we defend ourselves against a
ballistic missile attack from Russia?

409
00:25:36,060 --> 00:25:40,380
So we are investing more in our air
missile defence and we do have...

410
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:45,240
those defensive capabilities, but we
need to do more. This speaks right to

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00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:49,900
the spirit of the national conversation
we need around defence.

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Does the Prime Minister support that?
Because in the Commons, not that long

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00:25:53,140 --> 00:25:57,080
ago, he said national security can't
come at the expense of social security.

414
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:01,300
So would you be content for your old
department, Health, to make some

415
00:26:01,300 --> 00:26:03,140
sacrifices to put this money into
defence?

416
00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,500
So I think what the Prime Minister was
saying is you don't make your country

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00:26:06,500 --> 00:26:08,520
stronger by making your people poorer.

418
00:26:09,340 --> 00:26:13,700
Every pound we put into defence is a
pound that could have either gone on

419
00:26:13,700 --> 00:26:16,300
something else we care about, health,
education.

420
00:26:17,040 --> 00:26:19,440
or money that could go back into
people's hard-pressed pockets.

421
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:22,760
And that's why I think your programme's
done a real public service.

422
00:26:23,020 --> 00:26:27,960
Because at the moment, pressure on us to
spend more on defence is high and we

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00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:31,300
embrace it because we agree we're
committed to doing that. But that

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00:26:31,300 --> 00:26:34,600
doesn't mean that when the budget comes
and the spending review comes, there

425
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:37,940
might not be people saying, why are you
spending money on that and not other

426
00:26:37,940 --> 00:26:38,940
things we care about?

427
00:26:39,120 --> 00:26:43,200
Well, I think your programme helps
people to understand why investing in

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00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:44,400
the capability matters.

429
00:26:45,160 --> 00:26:49,200
and investing in our relationships and
alliances really matters too. Let's talk

430
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:53,360
about how the UK would cope in a war
scenario because we did some exclusive

431
00:26:53,360 --> 00:26:58,700
polling for the programme saying that
54% told us that they'd cope for just

432
00:26:58,700 --> 00:27:01,840
three days if an emergency took out
power, water and supplies.

433
00:27:02,100 --> 00:27:06,080
I don't need people to be alarmed.

434
00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:10,260
by the world we're living in, the
threats we face, but we do need to be

435
00:27:10,260 --> 00:27:15,160
alert. It may be we indeed ask members
of the public to think about their own

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00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:16,200
domestic resilience.

437
00:27:16,580 --> 00:27:21,280
Do you have tins of food in the
cupboard? Do you have a supply of water?

438
00:27:21,580 --> 00:27:23,480
Those basic resilience things.

439
00:27:23,740 --> 00:27:26,760
National service, because our polling
also showed that more than 60% of the

440
00:27:26,760 --> 00:27:29,920
population would support some sort of
national service. Would you like to open

441
00:27:29,920 --> 00:27:30,579
that debate?

442
00:27:30,580 --> 00:27:32,620
I don't think we need to because...

443
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:38,040
What we see is in uniformed cadets in
schools, we see demand for it

444
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:41,720
outstripping what we're able to provide.
So we're going to increase our resource

445
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:43,720
for cadets and the number of
opportunities available.

446
00:27:44,460 --> 00:27:48,980
We see people stepping up to become
reservists. So I think there is a public

447
00:27:48,980 --> 00:27:50,400
spiritedness out there.

448
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:53,480
Do you still want to be PM after
watching our series? Because I think

449
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:56,600
Michael Gove has had some serious second
thoughts. Yeah, that ship has sailed for

450
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:57,600
me.

451
00:27:59,470 --> 00:28:03,430
Well, the Defence Secretary was quite
clear that there were options available

452
00:28:03,430 --> 00:28:08,530
to him, were Russia to attack, options
that you in the Cabinet did not have.

453
00:28:08,570 --> 00:28:09,970
Richard, were you reassured by that?

454
00:28:11,130 --> 00:28:14,350
So, first of all, I think it's great
that the Defence Secretary is engaged

455
00:28:14,350 --> 00:28:15,309
with the programme.

456
00:28:15,310 --> 00:28:17,110
I think that's a huge compliment.

457
00:28:17,690 --> 00:28:20,530
Secondly, you'd expect him to be
reassuring.

458
00:28:21,050 --> 00:28:22,570
That's part of his job.

459
00:28:22,790 --> 00:28:27,310
But about a year ago, the government
produced a defence review of which I was

460
00:28:27,310 --> 00:28:28,450
one of the leaders.

461
00:28:28,990 --> 00:28:32,150
And it describes the sort of world the
war game depicts.

462
00:28:32,770 --> 00:28:37,950
It accepts that the UK Armed Forces,
good though they are, are in the state

463
00:28:37,950 --> 00:28:42,070
that they were left by the 35 years of
relatively gentle post-Cold War era. And

464
00:28:42,070 --> 00:28:46,450
it says we've got to raise our game and
we've got to transform for war in the

465
00:28:46,450 --> 00:28:47,970
21st century. This is different.

466
00:28:48,450 --> 00:28:52,870
And we need to do it sufficiently
quickly to stay in step with a clock set

467
00:28:52,870 --> 00:28:57,850
by our enemies, not by our allies. So
there's a huge amount to do.

468
00:28:58,200 --> 00:28:59,740
Well, you mentioned allies there.

469
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:05,120
Wes feels pretty confident that NATO
members would rally round if we were to

470
00:29:05,120 --> 00:29:09,460
come under attack. He said, in terms, we
have the capability to inflict real

471
00:29:09,460 --> 00:29:11,120
damage to defeat Russia.

472
00:29:11,380 --> 00:29:12,380
Do you share that confidence?

473
00:29:13,550 --> 00:29:15,890
So we need to believe in NATO.

474
00:29:16,190 --> 00:29:21,710
The UK requires a collective security
arrangement, and that is NATO. But NATO,

475
00:29:21,730 --> 00:29:25,970
created in 1949, bankrolled by the
United States, underpinned by the United

476
00:29:25,970 --> 00:29:26,889
States military.

477
00:29:26,890 --> 00:29:32,130
And we know now, in 2026, that the US is
going to do different things with its

478
00:29:32,130 --> 00:29:37,550
resources, and Europe is having to learn
to step up for itself just as the

479
00:29:37,550 --> 00:29:38,910
situation has got much more...

480
00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:44,000
Difficult. And the trust that we all
place in NATO Article 5, an attack on

481
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:48,140
one is an attack on all, still requires
every nation to agree in the moment. And

482
00:29:48,140 --> 00:29:52,400
I think today that trust is more
ambivalent. And he's pretty confident

483
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:56,800
that, you know, cadets and reservists
will also help us get through. What do

484
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:57,800
you make of that?

485
00:29:58,020 --> 00:30:03,300
So, the British Army is about 73,000
regulars. It has about 30,000 reserves

486
00:30:03,300 --> 00:30:06,400
and a strategic reserve of people who
were once in the regular army.

487
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:11,380
So that's quite small. To put that in
perspective, in Ukraine, Russia has

488
00:30:11,380 --> 00:30:17,680
taken a million fatalities and 500,000
wounded. So that's roughly 15 British

489
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:19,100
armies consumed so far.

490
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:23,640
So we need to recognise that if there is
a crisis, we'll probably have to make

491
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:27,020
our army bigger and we'll have to make
it to endure. We'll need all our

492
00:30:27,020 --> 00:30:28,580
reserves and we're going to need
volunteers.

493
00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:32,320
Well, Jim, let me bring you in here,
because you wanted to be a reservist,

494
00:30:32,340 --> 00:30:33,600
didn't you? And you weren't allowed.

495
00:30:34,380 --> 00:30:36,400
Yeah, I've got to that stage in my life.

496
00:30:37,500 --> 00:30:41,920
I mean, you look pretty trim, you know?
Yeah, I tried to... A year or so ago, I

497
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:45,420
tried to volunteer to be a reservist,
but the rules at the moment mean that

498
00:30:45,420 --> 00:30:50,400
someone over 55, of which I happily am,
just didn't qualify.

499
00:30:51,140 --> 00:30:55,960
So I'd love Wes Freeting and the others
to have a bit of flexibility about this

500
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:59,360
sort of stuff. I'm not expecting to be
on the front line, I'm not qualified for

501
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,600
that, but there must be things that
others with a bit of life experience

502
00:31:02,600 --> 00:31:06,300
could do to help in the sort of things
that Richard's been speaking about.

503
00:31:06,899 --> 00:31:09,640
Harriet, let me bring in you here
because, you know, the Defence Secretary

504
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,320
accepted we need to do more, that's what
he said. And he said that every

505
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:17,960
department was already making sacrifices
to pay for increased defence of the

506
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:23,260
realm. But isn't the case, Harriet, the
real PM, not that one over there, has

507
00:31:23,260 --> 00:31:27,320
boxed the real Cabinet in because he
said in the Commons national security

508
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,500
can't come at the expense of social
security.

509
00:31:29,740 --> 00:31:31,840
So the room for manoeuvre is very
limited, isn't it?

510
00:31:32,410 --> 00:31:37,030
Well, he's made it clear that he thinks
defence spending should be increased and

511
00:31:37,030 --> 00:31:40,770
that it should be 3.5 of GDP by 2030.

512
00:31:41,110 --> 00:31:44,430
But I think we are seeing a political
shift going on here. He hasn't said how

513
00:31:44,430 --> 00:31:47,490
to get there, though, has he? Yeah, but
he's committed to that. But we are

514
00:31:47,490 --> 00:31:51,110
seeing a sort of journey here, a
political shift, and it needs to be

515
00:31:51,110 --> 00:31:53,270
quite... It's a long journey, though.
Well, I was going to say, it needs to be

516
00:31:53,270 --> 00:31:57,370
quite a rapid journey. And this is why I
actually had to... I don't want to make

517
00:31:57,370 --> 00:32:00,910
it sound like Love Island, but I had to
pull Nicola for a chat, because...

518
00:32:01,740 --> 00:32:07,280
Those of us who've prioritised spending
on health, education, tackling poverty,

519
00:32:07,860 --> 00:32:11,860
childcare, you know, we used to call it
butter, not bombs.

520
00:32:12,280 --> 00:32:14,980
That's where our hearts were and where
the pressure was.

521
00:32:15,220 --> 00:32:21,320
And in all the... And it was bairns, not
bombs, for the SNP in Scotland. But in

522
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,960
all my decades of being an MP, where
people came to see me with their

523
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:28,180
problems, their very real daily problems
about...

524
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:33,400
the health care situation, about their
housing situation, about what was

525
00:32:33,400 --> 00:32:34,400
happening to their kids.

526
00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:38,980
Nobody was coming in saying, we want you
to increase defence spending.

527
00:32:39,220 --> 00:32:44,280
And it's a leadership job now for this
government and for all of us, really, to

528
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:49,260
say... The circumstances now require it.
These are difficult decisions.

529
00:32:49,620 --> 00:32:55,080
But also there's a civilian resilience,
which you've been talking about, which

530
00:32:55,080 --> 00:33:00,000
needs to be stepped up as well, because
you can see in that scenario, you know,

531
00:33:00,000 --> 00:33:01,840
what about the transport connections?

532
00:33:02,160 --> 00:33:06,020
What do the hospitals know what to do?
What's going on with the ambulances?

533
00:33:06,940 --> 00:33:11,560
What's... Does everybody know what part
they're supposed to play? Is there a

534
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:15,400
plan? Do they all know the plan? Do they
know each other's plan? And do the

535
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,320
public know what they're supposed to be
part of?

536
00:33:18,540 --> 00:33:22,540
And I think, you know, there's a
reluctance to be alarmist, but

537
00:33:22,540 --> 00:33:28,000
actually... We've got to make sure we
tell people what they need to be doing

538
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:32,520
in case of this scenario, which we hope
won't arise, arising.

539
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:38,780
And that's not... That goal of getting
to 3.5% by 2035, you know, Andy Burnham

540
00:33:38,780 --> 00:33:42,380
has not set out how he's going to get
there. And if you look at the figures,

541
00:33:42,540 --> 00:33:48,690
that 3.5... of GDP spending on defence
would require around £40 billion extra a

542
00:33:48,690 --> 00:33:52,670
year. So that's roughly twice the entire
annual day-to-day budget of the Home

543
00:33:52,670 --> 00:33:56,570
Office. So, Harriet, where does that
come from, in your view? I know you're

544
00:33:56,570 --> 00:33:59,330
not the Chancellor, but in your personal
view, does that come from higher

545
00:33:59,330 --> 00:34:03,190
borrowing? Does it come from cutting
other departmental budgets? Does it come

546
00:34:03,190 --> 00:34:04,190
from tax rises?

547
00:34:04,330 --> 00:34:05,169
What's the answer?

548
00:34:05,170 --> 00:34:08,790
Well, it has to come at a time when
growth is not as good as it is, and it's

549
00:34:08,790 --> 00:34:11,989
threatened by what Trump has been doing
in Iran, which has made...

550
00:34:12,250 --> 00:34:13,929
global economic growth more difficult.

551
00:34:14,130 --> 00:34:18,610
But I think that it has to come because
it's an ironclad commitment and it will

552
00:34:18,610 --> 00:34:22,710
have to come with a combination of the
ways that these things are done, which

553
00:34:22,710 --> 00:34:27,110
is partly by spending cuts, partly by
taxes and partly by borrowing.

554
00:34:27,370 --> 00:34:28,790
Does that stack up, Penny?

555
00:34:29,130 --> 00:34:33,570
Look, when you're talking about money,
the question is really simple for the

556
00:34:33,570 --> 00:34:40,550
Cabinet. Do you want to spend 50% of
your GDP on war or do you want to spend

557
00:34:40,550 --> 00:34:41,830
5% of it...

558
00:34:42,170 --> 00:34:47,489
on preventing one that is the question
for the cabinet and actually finding the

559
00:34:47,489 --> 00:34:53,630
money is doable what seems to be much
harder is finding the political will and

560
00:34:53,630 --> 00:34:58,950
leadership to do what is required to
defend this country and build back up

561
00:34:58,950 --> 00:35:04,290
our conventional forces we're not going
to face some of the scenarios towards

562
00:35:04,290 --> 00:35:09,870
the end of this series the deterrent is
good it's credible but we are already

563
00:35:09,870 --> 00:35:10,870
facing

564
00:35:11,180 --> 00:35:12,580
an escalating situation.

565
00:35:13,020 --> 00:35:16,940
I mean, Keir mentioned the Shadow Fleet,
which your viewers will have heard

566
00:35:16,940 --> 00:35:21,260
about. That is now larger than the
largest shipping lines in the world.

567
00:35:21,340 --> 00:35:22,740
It's 1,000 vessels.

568
00:35:23,100 --> 00:35:26,520
Yeah, that's an extraordinary... And
this is attacking our way of life. We've

569
00:35:26,520 --> 00:35:32,220
been looking at one foe in this series,
Russia. We face hundreds, and the chiefs

570
00:35:32,220 --> 00:35:34,260
have given us a timeline, as you alluded
to.

571
00:35:34,830 --> 00:35:38,430
I think, I've been saying for years,
we've got to spend more. I think this

572
00:35:38,430 --> 00:35:43,470
autumn, if we don't do what is required
in the budget, it will be too late for

573
00:35:43,470 --> 00:35:48,030
us to be ready in those few years for
what is lying ahead. Let me bring Nicola

574
00:35:48,030 --> 00:35:51,210
in because, you know, simple choice. I
don't know what this show has done to

575
00:35:51,210 --> 00:35:52,370
me. I'm almost agreeing with Penny.

576
00:35:53,790 --> 00:35:54,930
That is extraordinary.

577
00:35:55,490 --> 00:35:56,490
I said almost.

578
00:35:56,750 --> 00:36:00,330
Look, there's no easy choices for
politicians, which is why most of us are

579
00:36:00,330 --> 00:36:03,630
probably quite glad to be out of the
real thing and doing it in a fictional

580
00:36:03,630 --> 00:36:08,180
sense. But, you know, Andy Burnham is
probably never going to have a better

581
00:36:08,180 --> 00:36:12,180
opportunity than he does now to open up
this debate and have a lot of

582
00:36:12,180 --> 00:36:16,360
transparency and try to inform the
public about the choices. He's a new

583
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:20,440
popular prime minister with a lot of
political capital. And that's why I do

584
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:24,080
agree with Penny. I think in the short
term, leading up to this budget...

585
00:36:24,490 --> 00:36:27,790
Some of these decisions have got to be
taken for real. You know, Harriet's

586
00:36:27,790 --> 00:36:29,630
right. So cutting welfare, you'd back
that?

587
00:36:29,950 --> 00:36:34,510
Look, no, I don't back cutting welfare,
but I do think there are choices that

588
00:36:34,510 --> 00:36:36,530
need to be aired. So it's not...

589
00:36:37,140 --> 00:36:38,220
I'm a former politician.

590
00:36:38,800 --> 00:36:42,840
It's not about putting us on the spot
like this. It's about opening this up.

591
00:36:42,880 --> 00:36:47,780
What are the trade-offs that people
think should be made? And what kind of

592
00:36:47,780 --> 00:36:51,560
defences are we investing in as well?
And I know we'll come on to the Trident

593
00:36:51,560 --> 00:36:55,540
discussion later. The other point I
wanted to pick up on from Harry is about

594
00:36:55,540 --> 00:36:56,540
civil resilience.

595
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,240
Because this is not just about potential
conflict.

596
00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:04,540
We need to increase that level of
resilience for wildfires, floods,

597
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:09,860
climate impact. This is a really scary
world we're living in right now, and I

598
00:37:09,860 --> 00:37:14,220
think we thought in Covid that the
public had become much more resilient.

599
00:37:14,340 --> 00:37:17,600
I'm not sure that lasted as long as we
thought it would, but I think there's a

600
00:37:17,600 --> 00:37:21,940
big debate that has to be had there now
as well, and hopefully this programme

601
00:37:21,940 --> 00:37:24,480
will help spark some of it. We're
starting it right here, yeah.

602
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:30,140
Well, after the break, Michael Gove and
our Cabinet face the decision no Prime

603
00:37:30,140 --> 00:37:31,880
Minister ever wants to make.

604
00:37:32,480 --> 00:37:34,080
For the sake of argument...

605
00:37:34,410 --> 00:37:39,350
Hiroshima-sized nuclear destruction. It
was 15 kilotons. These can be bigger. It

606
00:37:39,350 --> 00:37:40,350
could be 15 to 50.

607
00:37:40,550 --> 00:37:42,010
Hiroshima. Hiroshima.

608
00:37:42,310 --> 00:37:45,450
Yes. So a city is destroyed.

609
00:37:45,690 --> 00:37:46,690
Jesus.

610
00:37:46,970 --> 00:37:51,970
It was the moment that left one Cabinet
member feeling physically sick and

611
00:37:51,970 --> 00:37:55,370
forced others to question beliefs they'd
held for decades.

612
00:37:56,130 --> 00:38:00,610
Has the war game changed any of their
minds about Britain's nuclear weapons?

613
00:38:00,870 --> 00:38:02,550
Find out right after this.

614
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:23,460
Welcome back to the war game Aftermath.
It was the scenario that brought our

615
00:38:23,460 --> 00:38:27,740
Cabinet and the series to the brink. A
potential nuclear war.

616
00:38:28,860 --> 00:38:34,520
It appears that Russian leadership moved
from Moscow to the fortified underground

617
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:39,240
bunker. Potentially preparation for them
resorting to the use of weapons of mass

618
00:38:39,240 --> 00:38:44,020
destruction. We need to evacuate this
building now and go to a secure

619
00:38:44,020 --> 00:38:48,180
location. We have a nuclear deterrent.
It's not deterring Russian action.

620
00:38:49,500 --> 00:38:51,760
An Ereshnik missile has been launched.

621
00:38:51,980 --> 00:38:56,260
We do not know whether this missile has
a nuclear warhead. What is the time

622
00:38:56,260 --> 00:38:58,220
between launch and impact?

623
00:38:58,600 --> 00:38:59,479
22 minutes.

624
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:02,020
And there is nothing that we have that
can shoot this down.

625
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:03,840
What damage will one of these weapons
do?

626
00:39:04,060 --> 00:39:06,660
Hiroshima-sized nuclear destruction.
Hiroshima?

627
00:39:06,980 --> 00:39:08,340
Hiroshima? Hiroshima, yes.

628
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:10,180
So a city is destroyed.

629
00:39:10,860 --> 00:39:13,800
A powerful blast wave would destroy
buildings.

630
00:39:14,460 --> 00:39:18,200
We estimate between 50,000 and 100,000
fatalities.

631
00:39:19,040 --> 00:39:23,240
The major decision is whether you
believe this warrants a nuclear

632
00:39:23,240 --> 00:39:25,740
response. They might think we're mad
enough to do that.

633
00:39:25,940 --> 00:39:29,100
We're talking about using weapons of
mass destruction. I'd like to hear from

634
00:39:29,100 --> 00:39:34,080
our legal advisor. The law on this is
very clear. I will not sacrifice 67

635
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:39,000
million for 1 million, and I will not
sacrifice the law because we become gung

636
00:39:39,000 --> 00:39:42,240
-ho in a bunker. There is a missile
hurtling towards this country.

637
00:39:42,500 --> 00:39:43,500
We've all had our say.

638
00:39:44,240 --> 00:39:45,420
It's for you to decide.

639
00:39:47,700 --> 00:39:52,300
Well, Michael, Prime Minister, it was
the moment of greatest jeopardy, wasn't

640
00:39:52,300 --> 00:39:56,760
it? And you had no way of knowing
whether that missile hurtling towards us

641
00:39:56,760 --> 00:40:01,520
was armed with a nuclear warhead. Just
give us an insight into what was going

642
00:40:01,520 --> 00:40:04,400
through your mind at that point as Prime
Minister.

643
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:08,980
Well, I know from Prime Ministers with
whom I've worked that this is the single

644
00:40:08,980 --> 00:40:12,260
most important decision that they might
ever have to make. The first thing...

645
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:16,520
that any prime minister does once they
are alone with the cabinet secretary is

646
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:21,440
decide what is going to go in a sealed
letter that will be placed with the

647
00:40:21,440 --> 00:40:26,180
captain of the nuclear submarine that
provides the uh nuclear deterrent that

648
00:40:26,180 --> 00:40:27,180
is continuously

649
00:40:28,690 --> 00:40:32,310
It's the most momentous decision that
any prime minister can make. There are

650
00:40:32,310 --> 00:40:34,770
only a limited number of nuclear powers.

651
00:40:35,050 --> 00:40:41,530
And it's on the basis of that deterrent
that the whole structure of our defence

652
00:40:41,530 --> 00:40:44,610
is engineered and has been organised for
decades now.

653
00:40:44,930 --> 00:40:49,350
And, Maisha, we saw your face as you
listened to the nuclear briefing.

654
00:40:49,810 --> 00:40:51,290
Just explain that.

655
00:40:51,870 --> 00:40:56,690
It felt so real, being in the room. And,
of course...

656
00:40:57,020 --> 00:41:01,700
We all came into this as professionals
and we had a job to do and, you know, we

657
00:41:01,700 --> 00:41:05,600
all are very interested in the policy
and trying to keep a cool, clear head.

658
00:41:06,020 --> 00:41:12,960
But this is also incredibly human and
just hearing the devastating effects

659
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:19,620
of this in terms of the loss of life,
the injury, felt so palpable and so

660
00:41:19,620 --> 00:41:23,500
visceral and so frightening just on a
human level. And as Penny says, you

661
00:41:23,500 --> 00:41:29,640
know... this is not likely to happen,
the chances of this happening are very

662
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:34,540
low, but the impact of this is high and
we should think about this. This is no

663
00:41:34,540 --> 00:41:37,520
decision that anybody should take
easily. And I think sometimes we talk

664
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:41,580
about defence, we talk about it in quite
a dry, abstract way.

665
00:41:41,940 --> 00:41:46,060
Really, there are no good options when
you are in this scenario.

666
00:41:46,300 --> 00:41:50,020
And this conversation, particularly the
briefing from Nuclear Expert and what

667
00:41:50,020 --> 00:41:53,420
CDS took us through, I found that
very...

668
00:41:54,399 --> 00:41:57,440
very powerful and very... I had to take
a moment. I actually felt sick. I had to

669
00:41:57,440 --> 00:42:00,080
leave the room at one point. I felt
quite overwhelmed.

670
00:42:00,360 --> 00:42:04,120
But I think that's OK. I think it's good
to have a human response to these

671
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,140
things. You should have a human response
to this.

672
00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:08,520
Just, Penny, just explain what...

673
00:42:08,750 --> 00:42:12,890
the nuclear deterrent is, because it is
a deterrent. And this concept of

674
00:42:12,890 --> 00:42:17,030
mutually assured destruction, it's
absolutely terrifying, of course, but it

675
00:42:17,030 --> 00:42:20,530
is supposed to prevent the worst
happening, isn't it? Yeah, and it works.

676
00:42:20,630 --> 00:42:23,750
It does what it says on the tin. It's
there to deter...

677
00:42:24,200 --> 00:42:29,120
the worst possible aggression against
us. And it has done that very well for

678
00:42:29,120 --> 00:42:30,620
more than 70 years.

679
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:35,220
It's absolutely useless if you want to
look inside a suitcase at the port of

680
00:42:35,220 --> 00:42:39,620
Dover or to stop a drone coming in. It
can't do any of those things. It can't

681
00:42:39,620 --> 00:42:40,620
bake you a sponge cake.

682
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:42,340
It does one job.

683
00:42:42,730 --> 00:42:47,310
and it has done it well for a very long
time. And despite all the pressures that

684
00:42:47,310 --> 00:42:52,810
the defence budget has been under, we
have prioritised that capability above

685
00:42:52,810 --> 00:42:57,170
all else, because without it, we would
be in very serious... Nicola, you've got

686
00:42:57,170 --> 00:43:01,270
a quizzical face on, because, you know,
we saw you questioning the point of

687
00:43:01,270 --> 00:43:04,150
having a nuclear deterrent if it's not
deterring Russia.

688
00:43:04,410 --> 00:43:07,330
Penny's just said it works, it has
worked.

689
00:43:07,550 --> 00:43:08,550
Your view?

690
00:43:09,060 --> 00:43:12,620
I've opposed nuclear weapons in
principle all my life. I haven't changed

691
00:43:12,620 --> 00:43:15,460
my mind on that. I understand the
deterrent argument.

692
00:43:15,680 --> 00:43:20,800
Russia's less likely to fire a strategic
nuclear weapon at us if we can fire one

693
00:43:20,800 --> 00:43:25,620
back. But what we saw in the show is
that Russia's capable of doing a lot of

694
00:43:25,620 --> 00:43:29,980
harm to us well before it gets to that
point. So we can have our disagreements

695
00:43:29,980 --> 00:43:32,720
about Trident. I am a minority of one, I
think.

696
00:43:33,500 --> 00:43:37,440
this cast, but we shouldn't allow it to
be at the expense of conventional

697
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:41,920
defences, the defences we need. I mean,
let me just give you these figures for

698
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:47,640
context. The UK spends upwards of 20% on
the nuclear deterrent, and that's rising

699
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:48,760
as a proportion.

700
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:53,340
America spends less than 10% on its
nuclear deterrent. I think in France

701
00:43:53,340 --> 00:43:57,240
it's about 13%. Of the defence budget?
Of the defence budget. So, you know...

702
00:43:58,110 --> 00:44:02,910
Trident is sucking a lot of money from
conventional defences, so let's have our

703
00:44:02,910 --> 00:44:07,170
disagreements about Trident. As Penny
and Ayesha have said, that's the least

704
00:44:07,170 --> 00:44:11,130
likely part of the show we hope to
happen. But all of what happened before

705
00:44:11,130 --> 00:44:15,090
that is what we found we were really
underprepared for. Look, arguing you

706
00:44:15,090 --> 00:44:19,090
should get rid of the deterrent to fund
more conventional forces, I want more

707
00:44:19,090 --> 00:44:22,270
conventional forces. That's the reason
for me doing this show. But your

708
00:44:22,270 --> 00:44:26,750
argument is like saying, let's do away
with fire extinguishers because glasses

709
00:44:26,750 --> 00:44:29,630
of... water are much better at quenching
our thirst.

710
00:44:29,890 --> 00:44:34,970
You can't put out a house fire with a
bottle of air. We need the capability.

711
00:44:35,250 --> 00:44:39,750
I can tell you, without that capability,
we would be facing the kinds of

712
00:44:39,750 --> 00:44:42,850
catastrophic situations that we've seen
in this programme.

713
00:44:43,130 --> 00:44:44,970
What we've seen this week is fantasy.

714
00:44:45,330 --> 00:44:48,570
That is not going to happen because we
have these capabilities.

715
00:44:48,970 --> 00:44:50,290
They're tried and tested.

716
00:44:50,550 --> 00:44:52,790
They're an immensely serious enterprise.

717
00:44:53,110 --> 00:44:56,780
If you're a chief on one of those subs,
you've spent a decade of your life

718
00:44:56,780 --> 00:44:59,620
underwater protecting this country. And
I've got huge respect for people, but,

719
00:44:59,620 --> 00:45:03,220
you know, we saw in the show one
destroyer in terms of conventional

720
00:45:03,220 --> 00:45:06,860
defences. Now, I think for those who are
going to argue for the nuclear

721
00:45:06,860 --> 00:45:11,260
deterrent, and I'm being respectful
about the different views there, I think

722
00:45:11,260 --> 00:45:15,240
the point that has to be addressed is
how can that be maintained without

723
00:45:15,240 --> 00:45:18,380
allowing conventional defences to wither
on the vine? Because our conventional

724
00:45:18,380 --> 00:45:22,340
defences... have withered on the vine,
and that's a really serious issue. Spend

725
00:45:22,340 --> 00:45:26,360
5% of your GDP on defending this
country. Well, fine, fine. That's what

726
00:45:26,360 --> 00:45:28,860
you need to do. But we've got to see how
that's going to be done. And if we don't

727
00:45:28,860 --> 00:45:33,600
do it, we don't have a clear path this
autumn and all the other things that

728
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:38,380
need to accompany it that NATO says we
need, I think it will be too late for us

729
00:45:38,380 --> 00:45:39,400
to be ready in a few years.

730
00:45:39,620 --> 00:45:44,340
I think the important thing about this
conversation and the show itself and how

731
00:45:44,340 --> 00:45:46,200
it ends is really important.

732
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:51,200
Going into this show, I was worried that
we may expose some secrets.

733
00:45:51,700 --> 00:45:55,940
And the truth is, the only secret we
came close to exposing was how would a

734
00:45:55,940 --> 00:45:59,800
group of people like this, who are a
reasonable cross-section of the skill

735
00:45:59,800 --> 00:46:04,160
set and experience that will always be
in power in the United Kingdom, this

736
00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:08,320
type of group, and what Moscow would be
watching is, how would we respond?

737
00:46:08,780 --> 00:46:13,780
And because the programme climaxes on a
cliffhanger where Michael has to make a

738
00:46:13,780 --> 00:46:16,140
choice and then cuts at that point...

739
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:21,420
We have maintained in this programme,
one, the secrecy, and two, the

740
00:46:21,420 --> 00:46:25,600
deterrence effect, because that was the
jeopardy in opening up this entire

741
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:28,340
conversation and coming to a firm
decision.

742
00:46:28,780 --> 00:46:32,680
I happen to agree more with Penny than I
do with Nicola, but it was important

743
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:36,480
that we keep the Russians, the Chinese
and others guessing.

744
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:40,660
Yeah, but, Michael, is the deterrent
effect blunted by the fact that there

745
00:46:40,660 --> 00:46:43,980
are now nine nuclear powers and there
are some very unpredictable leaders with

746
00:46:43,980 --> 00:46:45,160
their finger on the button, aren't
there?

747
00:46:45,690 --> 00:46:48,750
There are, and proliferation is a worry.
But when we're thinking about the

748
00:46:48,750 --> 00:46:53,750
nuclear deterrent, I had in mind the
motto of the Scots Guards, which in

749
00:46:53,750 --> 00:47:00,450
Latin is... But if you translate that
into Anglo-Saxon, it broadly

750
00:47:00,450 --> 00:47:03,130
means... don't fuck with this honey
badger.

751
00:47:04,510 --> 00:47:09,310
Wow. Not very Prime Ministerial language
there, but... Saeeda, you've been very

752
00:47:09,310 --> 00:47:12,750
quiet up the other end, and you didn't
hold back in the series, so don't hold

753
00:47:12,750 --> 00:47:15,810
back now. What do you think? I think the
question that you've been asking, Cathy,

754
00:47:15,910 --> 00:47:17,730
rightly, is, is this likely to happen?

755
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:22,140
And this is not likely to happen. And I
think at that moment, when I thought the

756
00:47:22,140 --> 00:47:26,340
Prime Minister was losing his mind, I
felt that he was escalating it and

757
00:47:26,340 --> 00:47:30,580
starting to consider options, which in
real life, I don't think those options

758
00:47:30,580 --> 00:47:34,460
would be happening. And the reason for
them not happening is, one, because we

759
00:47:34,460 --> 00:47:38,620
do have a deterrent, but because Russia
or anybody else in the world is not

760
00:47:38,620 --> 00:47:44,060
going to strike with a nuclear weapon
against the United Kingdom because they

761
00:47:44,060 --> 00:47:47,320
know the consequences of that. If for no
other reason...

762
00:47:47,630 --> 00:47:49,470
We would be damaged. They would be
devastated.

763
00:47:49,770 --> 00:47:54,350
The response from the United Kingdom and
from NATO would be so big. And whatever

764
00:47:54,350 --> 00:47:57,470
we say about the United States and the
current occupant of the White House.

765
00:47:58,060 --> 00:48:01,780
In the end, these relationships run far
deeper than the Prime Minister.

766
00:48:02,000 --> 00:48:05,180
And I think the other thing that we
probably felt that we didn't have in

767
00:48:05,180 --> 00:48:09,420
that room was that there is a journey of
escalation. You don't kind of move from

768
00:48:09,420 --> 00:48:12,860
they've thrown a few missiles at us and
now we're going to press the nuclear

769
00:48:12,860 --> 00:48:16,980
button. And that journey of escalation
is where the conventional weapons have

770
00:48:16,980 --> 00:48:20,920
to come into. It's absolutely essential
that we are properly funded for that

771
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:24,960
journey. And it therefore means that
we're not in this jeopardy where we're

772
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:29,070
having to consider the nuclear option.
which could only be exercised... Of

773
00:48:29,070 --> 00:48:32,610
course we have a right to self-defence,
but it can only be exercised when the

774
00:48:32,610 --> 00:48:35,970
very survival of your state is at risk.
Well, we could carry on talking about

775
00:48:35,970 --> 00:48:39,550
this, but we have covered a great deal.
We are almost at the end of the show and

776
00:48:39,550 --> 00:48:43,890
the series. So what have our War Cabinet
and all of us watching learnt about our

777
00:48:43,890 --> 00:48:47,070
readiness, our resilience and our
resolve?

778
00:48:47,870 --> 00:48:53,470
Well, Kim, I want to ask you, in the
series America Lets Us Down, are you

779
00:48:53,470 --> 00:48:56,910
hopeful that in a real-world scenario
they'd be there for us?

780
00:48:57,230 --> 00:49:00,550
I'm very pro-American, but I thought
that was quite a credible picture.

781
00:49:00,930 --> 00:49:04,150
It reminded me of when I was in my early
years in the Foreign Office in 1982.

782
00:49:05,870 --> 00:49:08,870
Argentina invades the Falklands, British
territory. You would think that was a

783
00:49:08,870 --> 00:49:12,990
straightforward act of aggression and
that America should come in full boat

784
00:49:12,990 --> 00:49:15,910
behind us on it. And in fact, they
paused.

785
00:49:16,680 --> 00:49:20,720
They adopted a neutral position, and
there were a few weeks of negotiation

786
00:49:20,720 --> 00:49:25,300
where they tried to persuade us to do a
deal to share sovereignty with Argentina

787
00:49:25,300 --> 00:49:29,420
on the Falklands. Now, eventually, they
came round and they supported us, but

788
00:49:29,420 --> 00:49:34,060
it's foolish to imagine the Americans
will always rush in instantly, come over

789
00:49:34,060 --> 00:49:36,220
the... The cavalry will come over the
hilltop.

790
00:49:36,670 --> 00:49:43,150
They've been supplying 70% of NATO's
firepower for decades now. Yeah. We've

791
00:49:43,150 --> 00:49:46,490
been munching free at the American table
for decades and that's going to stop.

792
00:49:46,750 --> 00:49:49,450
Well, talking about munching at the
American table, we do have a message,

793
00:49:49,450 --> 00:49:51,370
actually, from America. Let's have a
look.

794
00:49:52,370 --> 00:49:55,510
Surprise. Good to see you. Just
finishing up an interview.

795
00:49:55,910 --> 00:49:58,910
I'm sorry I played hard again in
Britain's hour of need.

796
00:49:59,190 --> 00:50:00,530
Hope there's no hard feelings.

797
00:50:01,370 --> 00:50:06,310
But honestly, it was the most fun I had
since that last job. You know the one.

798
00:50:06,410 --> 00:50:11,390
The one in the White House. In fact, I
think I lasted longer on this one than

799
00:50:11,390 --> 00:50:12,288
that one.

800
00:50:12,290 --> 00:50:15,290
Here's the thing. Americans really do
love the Brits. Don't forget that.

801
00:50:15,690 --> 00:50:22,190
You're so weirdly polite, even when your
closest ally will not return your calls.

802
00:50:22,550 --> 00:50:27,570
And if things ever look that dark,
listen to me. Use your secret weapon.

803
00:50:29,090 --> 00:50:30,090
Send in the king.

804
00:50:31,680 --> 00:50:35,180
LAUGHTER The secret weapon sending in
the King. Our Secretary of State for the

805
00:50:35,180 --> 00:50:36,500
series there, Anthony Scaramucci.

806
00:50:37,060 --> 00:50:38,560
Saeed, a hopeful message.

807
00:50:38,820 --> 00:50:41,920
The King gives us hope, perhaps. What
else gives you hope at the end of all

808
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:46,420
this? I think two things give me hope.
First of all, the fact that I think the

809
00:50:46,420 --> 00:50:47,900
NATO alliance is strong.

810
00:50:48,180 --> 00:50:51,920
I think that we have to believe in that,
and I think that our alliances beyond

811
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:56,140
NATO are strong. And even if the United
States had wanted to sit this one out

812
00:50:56,140 --> 00:50:59,620
for the first couple of weeks, I think
the rest of NATO would have kicked in,

813
00:50:59,700 --> 00:51:05,000
and so I'm confident about that. I also
think that this debate is important, and

814
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:08,840
I'm hopeful that this has started a real
conversation within the country.

815
00:51:09,180 --> 00:51:12,520
And I'm also hopeful that... And I
think... I felt this was... really

816
00:51:12,520 --> 00:51:17,360
important. We sit at some of the top
tables in the world and we sat at some

817
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:21,200
of those top tables because of our
history and empire.

818
00:51:21,840 --> 00:51:25,720
But we continue to sit at those tables
because we are an important military

819
00:51:25,720 --> 00:51:30,580
power and we are also an important power
because of the values that we hold. And

820
00:51:30,580 --> 00:51:35,040
that's why I felt we needed to ensure
that we acted within our values when we

821
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:36,040
were in that cabinet room.

822
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:38,580
Well, I've left the most important
question to last, of course.

823
00:51:38,880 --> 00:51:42,560
In a war situation, a crisis situation,
who would be the best Prime Minister,

824
00:51:42,720 --> 00:51:43,720
Harriet?

825
00:51:44,560 --> 00:51:46,120
I think I'm going to say Nicola.

826
00:51:47,140 --> 00:51:50,580
Wow, OK, Nicola, your choice. I mean, I
have to say Harriet. You are, aren't

827
00:51:50,580 --> 00:51:51,760
you? Penny?

828
00:51:52,640 --> 00:51:56,660
Well, I would like, dodging the
question, I would like the current

829
00:51:56,660 --> 00:51:59,140
Cabinet... to go through this scenario.

830
00:51:59,380 --> 00:52:06,060
Because even though you know the theory,
you know what you're supposed to be

831
00:52:06,060 --> 00:52:10,440
doing in those scenarios, when you're
faced with the lack of options that we

832
00:52:10,440 --> 00:52:16,340
currently have, lack of conventional
capabilities, lack of a way to de

833
00:52:16,340 --> 00:52:21,700
-escalate a situation or push back, you
know, those people around that table

834
00:52:21,700 --> 00:52:25,720
today really need to understand what
their responsibilities are at this

835
00:52:25,720 --> 00:52:28,880
moment. Richard, I'm going to ask you
who you nominate for a war leader.

836
00:52:29,280 --> 00:52:30,280
Definitely Kim.

837
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,360
That's not fair. You're sticking
together. You're bullying the

838
00:52:34,360 --> 00:52:36,300
politicians. Michael, who would you
pick?

839
00:52:36,720 --> 00:52:37,740
Richard Barron's.

840
00:52:38,100 --> 00:52:42,220
LAUGHTER One of the things that most
impresses me is that we still have

841
00:52:42,220 --> 00:52:45,640
people of Richard's intelligence,
decency and patriotism volunteer for our

842
00:52:45,640 --> 00:52:49,660
armed forces. OK, got to end it there,
I'm afraid. Thank you very much. That is

843
00:52:49,660 --> 00:52:54,680
just about all. A huge thank you to our
extraordinary Cabinet, to everyone who's

844
00:52:54,680 --> 00:52:59,020
joined us this evening, and, of course,
to all of you at home who've watched The

845
00:52:59,020 --> 00:52:59,718
War Game.

846
00:52:59,720 --> 00:53:04,180
The series showed our country come under
attack and prompted us to consider the

847
00:53:04,180 --> 00:53:07,440
bigger questions of how... Britain might
respond.

848
00:53:07,820 --> 00:53:12,080
It was all about understanding the
threats we face, learning how we can be

849
00:53:12,080 --> 00:53:16,540
better prepared, and giving all of us a
little more knowledge about what we can

850
00:53:16,540 --> 00:53:22,060
do. Well, the war game may be over, but
the conversation has only just begun.

851
00:53:22,220 --> 00:53:26,680
From our Cabinet, from everyone here at
the War Game Aftermath, and from me,

852
00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:28,620
thank you for watching and good night.